What Happened
On Mar 2, 2026?

Business & Energy Policy

In a significant move toward national energy independence, MIND ID has formally declared its support for Government Regulation (PP) No. 40 of 2025 regarding the National Energy Policy (KEN). During a socialization event, Maroef Sjamsoeddin emphasized energy transition and decarbonization, noting that the group is optimizing its coal reserves of 2.88 billion tons. Satya Widya Yudha (DEN) added that the policy is aligned with President Prabowo Subianto's 8% economic growth target. To bolster this, PT Bukit Asam Tbk is developing the Coal Handling Facility (CHF) and Train Loading Station (TLS) 6–7 to boost production to over 60 million tons annually.

Escalation in the Middle East, specifically the tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, has radically shifted global energy. Nafan Aji Gusta (Mirae Asset Sekuritas) and BRI Danareksa Sekuritas project that oil and gas emmitents like PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) and PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) are positioned to benefit from potential price surges. ADRO is currently diversifying into an aluminum smelter (500,000 tons/year) and renewable energy, while its subsidiary PT Adaro Minerals Indonesia Tbk (ADMR) maintains solid margins due to high demand for hard coking coal (HCC) in Asia. Meanwhile, Pertamina increased fuel (BBM) prices effective March 1, 2026, as global benchmark Brent crude crossed US$73 per barrel.

Economic & Fiscal Policy

Chairman of Commission XI DPR RI, Mukhamad Misbakhun, has urged the government to immediately activate emergency fiscal scenarios and strengthen monetary stability to counter risks from the US-Israel vs. Iran conflict. He warned that global energy volatility could pressure the state budget (APBN) and trigger domestic inflation just as the nation approaches Ramadan and Idul Fitri. This follows warnings from Josua Pardede (Bank Permata) regarding the Rupiah, which closed around Rp16,760–Rp16,798/US$. Market data from March 1, 2026, shows commercial banks like Bank Mandiri, BNI, BRI, and BCA setting USD sell rates between Rp16,785 and Rp16,950. S&P Global Ratings signaled caution regarding Indonesia's debt interest-to-revenue ratio exceeding 15%. Adding to the pressure, investor sentiment has shifted; despite a total weekly net buy of Rp4.9 trillion, foreign investors aggressively sold off PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF), PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA), and PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk (INKP), with INDF recording the largest net sell at Rp559.8 billion.

Financial Markets & Investment

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) remains volatile, closing at 8,235. In a major regulatory update, the exchange authority has mandated a minimum 15% free float for all listed companies to deepen market liquidity. However, market practitioners warn this could lead to mass rights issues or significant capital outflows if hundreds of emmitents offload shares simultaneously.

Amidst this, the plantation sector showed resilience on February 27. PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk (TAPG) led the surge with a 6.33% gain to Rp1,595, followed by SGRO (+2.13%), AALI (+1.01%), SIMP (+0.84%), and TLID (+0.76%). These gains align with fluctuating global CPO prices and sustained demand from India and China, though MKH Oil Palm in East Kalimantan saw a 2.48% dip on the Malaysian exchange.

The IDX Infrastructure sector continues to lag, plummeting 15.51% (ytd). Analysts Abida Massi Armand (BRI Danareksa) and Sukarno Alatas (Kiwoom Sekuritas) attribute this to interest rate sensitivity and profit-taking in heavyweights like BREN, TLKM, TOWR, and MTEL.

In regulatory news, OJK has intensified its crackdown, suspending the underwriting business of PT KGI Sekuritas Indonesia for one year due to inadequate due diligence during the IPPE IPO. This is part of a broader push for transparency, including a discourse on making 1% shareholding data public.

Stock Recommendations:

• Energy & Mining: MEDC, ADRO, ADMR, AKRA, AMMN, ANTM, ENRG, ELSA, HRUM, MDKA, INDY, BUMI, and AADI.
• Plantation/Agribusiness: TAPG, SGRO, AALI, SIMP, and TLID.
• Infrastructure & Telecommunications: TLKM (Target: Rp4,000), JSMR (Target: Rp5,300), MTEL (Target: Rp735), SMGR, PTRO, RAJA, and RATU.
• Blue Chips & Consumer: ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBRI, UNVR, ICBP, AMRT, and GOTO.
• Others: TOWR, BWPT, BRPT, SUPA, ISAT, PTBA, and UNTR.

Politics & International Affairs

The nation is in mourning following the passing of the 6th Vice President of Indonesia, Jenderal TNI (Purn) Try Sutrisno.

On the diplomatic and security front, President Prabowo Subianto has offered to facilitate a dialogue in Tehran to de-escalate Middle East tensions. This mirrors concerns from MUI and Commission I DPR regarding the US-led "Board of Peace" (BoP). In response to the volatile geopolitical situation, Vice Minister of Hajj and Umrah, Dahnil Anzar Simanjuntak, and Abdul Wachid (Vice Chairman of Commission VIII DPR) have officially urged citizens to postpone Umrah travel. Abdul Wachid highlighted that pilgrims using transit routes via Doha (Qatar) or Dubai (UAE) are particularly vulnerable to sudden airspace closures. He demanded that Umrah Travel Organizers (PPIU) take full responsibility and work with the government to ensure no pilgrims are left stranded. The government emphasized that life safety is the top priority as airspace closures and flight disruptions become more frequent.

Law & Justice

Petrus Selestinus (TPDI) criticized the 2019 KPK Law revision, alleging it was a government-led effort to weaken the agency. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education confirmed monthly Teacher Professional Allowance (TPG) payments under SKTP 2026.